These experts expect existing positive and negative trends to extend and expand in the next decade, revolutionizing most human interaction, especially affecting health, education, work, politics, economics, and entertainment. Most say they believe the results of that connectivity will be primarily positive. However, when asked to describe the good and bad aspects of the future they foresee, many of the experts can also clearly identify areas of concern, some of them extremely threatening. Heightened concerns over interpersonal ethics, surveillance, terror, and crime, may lead societies to question how best to establish security and trust while retaining civil liberties.
Earlier this afternoon I received the longlist for the 2014 Best Translated Book Award for Fiction, and just had a chance to break it all down and come up with some interesting tidbits to fuel the speculation as to what made it and what got left off.
Just a quick reminder: The full list will go live at exactly 10 am East Coast time on Tuesday morning. Until then, feel free to list all your predictions in the comments below. (Or at the BTBA 2014 Speculation forum at The Mookse and the Gripes.)
This Beyond the Numbers article examines the main long-run factors expected to contribute to demand for personal care services employment: increasing demand for personal care and appearance services, a growing customer base, and new and expanded service offerings. read more »
For men aged over 50 years, or for men aged 50 years and under whose occupation was mainly outdoors at age 18 or below, who had 5 large moles on their right arm, who were born in New Zealand and had a personal history of NMSC, the RR of melanoma was 70.31 or 27.19, respectively, compared to men with no risk factors (Table 4). For the selected ages shown, the 5-year absolute risk for these high-risk men ranged from 0.15% for 20 year-olds living in the North, to 12.19% for 80 year-olds living in the Midland region.
No surprise here. The HTTP Archive shows that the average top 1000 web page was 1607 KB at the end of 2013. Using a conservative estimate of 44% year-over-year growth (based on growth trends over the past three years), we can expect pages to exceed 2300 KB by the end of 2014.
Geoff Webb, director of solution strategy at NetIQ, believes 2014 will just be more of the same, with malware authors hiding their payload within friendly utilities and games. "Once installed, malware on devices will continue to focus on the things the device has access to, like online accounts and data, rather than anything on the device itself."
Of particular interest to the criminals is the growth of M-commerce and personal banking via mobile devices. "As M-commerce moves ever more mainstream (such as NFC payments on London buses as an example)," explains Greg Day, EMEA CTO at FireEye, "expect to see a new wave of cybercrime focus around M-commerce starting to underpin the cybercrime market." He goes further: "In the next 3 to 5 years the credit and debit card will be replaced by M-commerce," but he wonders if users yet understand the threats that will come with it.
One common perception (F-Secure's Sullivan apart) is that mobile malware is following in the footsteps of mainstream PC malware in both its methods and its targets. We are already, for example, seeing the construction of mobile device botnets. In 2014, there "is likely to be increased numbers of mobile devices within botnets as a percentage of the total number of zombie hosts," warns John Yeo, EMEA director at Trustwave. "Mobile botnets will be sold and bought and will also be used to distribute malicious attachments on behalf of third parties," suggests Alexander Gostev, chief security expert at Kaspersky Lab. The criminals "will continue to press ahead with the construction of smartphone botnets," confirms Eddy Willems, security evangelist at G Data.
The fourth front of this perfect storm is the user. "It's been said many times but humans are the weakest link," explains Charles Sweeney, CEO at Bloxx, "and for mobile malware, they are also potentially the most lucrative." The main reason is that while PC users have learned to distrust their computers, mobile users have not yet learned to distrust their phones. "People (generally) trust those they sleep with," says Kevin Haley, director at Symantec Security Response, "so it should not be surprising that with 48% of people sleeping with their smart phones, they are lulled into a (false) sense of security about them. In 2013, we reported on a mobile app that would secure additional 'likes' for your postings on Instagram. All you had to do was hand over your login and password to some guy in Russia. More than 100,000 people saw nothing wrong with that. We trust our mobile devices and the wonderful apps that run on them to make our lives better. We suspend disbelief for that device that sits in our pocket, purse or nightstand. The bad guys are going to take advantage of this big time in 2014."
"The personal esteem in which we all hold our mobile devices," continues Sweeney, "will mean that hackers can rely on good old social engineering in order to get access to the personal details, confidential data and passwords that they so desire. With shopping and banking application use so widespread this is a real cause for concern for consumers, but businesses will also worry about how robust their mobile security policies are." Malware won't even need to be that sophisticated in order to create havoc, he adds.
Whatever way you look at things, BYOD is an increasing rather than decreasing threat to the enterprise. The term has been overused in 2013, and many companies have begun to consider it to be little more than hype. 2014 may well prove to be the year that the industry's warnings come home to roost. The problem is that it is a new threat and requires new thinking. "Bolting on old world thinking to these devices will fail," warns Garry Sidaway, global director of security strategy at NTT Com Security, "and we have to address the problem in a different way and assume that the device is untrusted. Our thinking has to be how can we layer on trusted applications onto an untrusted device."
It's going to be a great year for agile folks who aren't married to yesterday's successes. The driver in 2014 is reinvention: What was brand new a short time ago gets transformed again, or else swept under the rug for even better applications. So here eight predictions, followed by two mandates:
2. Facebook's revenue in the third quarter of 2013 was $2 billion. Facebook will sell $6 billion of ads in the third quarter of 2015. The rest of the world does not 'get' this yet, but mark my words, by late 2014 Facebook advertising will be brutally competitive.
6. The "free exposure via social media" myth is just as dumb as the "free SEO" myth of 10 years ago. Earth is strewn with carcasses of chumps who lived and died by "free." Pay for play is the name of the game in social media. In 2004, the hot strategy was you tested your ideas in Google ads, then scaled up. In 2014, you test ideas in your news feed, then pay for them to go quasi viral. Expect to pay for all your fans to see your posts. Expect to pay for new customers.
7. The growth industry in 2014 is turning hobbies into businesses. Social media is making that possible like nothing else before. Since 10 percent of the people in the world produce enough to feed and furnish 90 percent of our "necessities," hobbies are not trivial. They are golden keys to the entrepreneurial future.
9. Obamacare is already a failure and nothing short of a total reboot can save it. Ditto with the website. How forthright politicians are about this fact will cast their fate in the 2014 elections. Meanwhile, as noble as the desire for universal health care is, Obamacare was the wrong answer to the wrong question.
Perry Marshall is the president of Perry S. Marshall & Associates, a Chicago-based company that consults both online and brick-and-mortar companies on generating sales leads, web traffic and maximizing advertising results. He has written seven books including his most recent, 80/20 Sales and Marketing (Entrepreneur Press, 2013), Ultimate Guide to Facebook Advertising (Enterpreneur Press, 2014), Ultimate Guide to Google AdWords (Entrepreneur Press, 2014), and Ultimate Guide to Local Business Marketing (Entrepreneur Press, 2016). He blogs at perrymarshall.com.
In that light, CPA Practice Advisor has asked us to share our information technology predictions for the next year and expose readers to the trends we feel will improve their accounting firm production beyond the upcoming busy season. However, before we can look towards 2014, it is only fair that we stand up to defend our predictions for last year where fortunately, we had more WINs the LOSSES:
Explore TMT Predictions 2013 by industry below - download brief individual predictions reports, explore the midyear checkpoint infographic, listen to the midyear podcast, watch videos, and share #TMTPredictions thoughts via social media.
As blogged-about as the Golden Globes have become, there's nothing quite like Oscar buzz. The Academy announces the contenders on Jan. 16, and as the studios send out a last-minute barrage of 30-second TV spots and full-page newspaper ads, critics are weighing in with their carefully calculated predictions and impassioned personal picks.
Relationship building will be an integral step in finding talent. We have definitely seen an uptick in employers that have sought to make the recruiting process more personal this year. Just consider the growing use of advanced CRM systems, such as Avature, and the release of LinkedIn Recruiter, which enables recruiters to better leverage the social platform to find right-fit talent.
While significant progress has been made in each area, I expect that organizations will continue to embrace these trends in the new year. So what else can we expect to see in 2014? Here are my latest predictions: 59ce067264